So by now you’ve probably heard the buzz about the Big Ten Conference. The Big Ten has decided to evaluate the possibility of expanding from 11 teams to 12. While no one from the conference has released any official information on which teams will be evaluated, there is plenty of speculation.

The Big Ten last expanded in 1990 with the addition of Penn State. That pushed the Big Ten to the current (confusing) count of 11 teams. That addition is regarded as highly successful by most people associated with the conference. The conference has since evaluated the possibility of expansion a few times, even offering a deal to Notre Dame in 1999. Notre Dame, obviously, refused at the time. The last evaluation came in 2003, but no action was taken. Now that the Big Ten has finished getting the Big Ten Network up and running, they’ve decided that the timing is right to evaluate expansion once again.

The Big Ten is looking for quite a few things in a new member. First and most apparent is athletic prominence. They’re going to look for a school that has fairly decent athletic programs, or at least a tradition of decent athletics. Second, the Big Ten is an academic conference as well and will look for a school that can compare academically. Unlike the Big East, the Big Ten schools are affiliated academically and are all members of the Association of American Universities (AAU) and the Committee on Institutional Cooperation (CIC). Third, the conference will look at the ability of the new team to expand on the Big Ten’s TV market now that the Big Ten Network has been implemented successfully. And lastly, the conference will almost certainly consider the geographical location of the new school so as to ease scheduling and travel.

So what teams are coming up in public discussions on the possible expansion? Well obviously Pitt has come up. Why else would we be posting an article on The Pitt Blog about the Big Ten? Other schools that have been mentioned in various reports and discussions are Notre Dame, Missouri, Syracuse, Rutgers, Cincinnati, Iowa State, Texas, Nebraska, Louisville, UConn, and WVU. Now not all of these would actually be serious candidates. Texas and Nebraska would almost certainly never leave the Big 12. Also, Texas is well outside of the geographically desirable area. WVU, Cincinnati, and Louisville do not really have the academic status to fit in with the Big Ten. None of those three is in the AAU nor regarded as an academically prominent school. WVU also doesn’t bring a large TV market with it. UConn falls too far east to fit geographically, even though it would bring in a new TV market. Iowa State just doesn’t seem to have the interest of the Big Ten. While it is a decent academic institution, Iowa State lacks a strong athletic tradition.

That leaves Notre Dame, Missouri, Pitt, Syracuse, and Rutgers as potential candidates. Let’s look at these schools and discuss each from the Big Ten’s point of view.

Notre Dame
Notre Dame is probably the #1 choice for the Big Ten. They’ve been courted before and turned down the offer from the Big Ten. Quite honestly, why wouldn’t they turn the Big Ten down? Notre Dame has a national fanbase and has a prestigious athletic (football) reputation on its own. With NBC backing them with a lucrative TV deal through 2015, there’s not a whole lot of financial incentive to associate themselves with the Big Ten. Notre Dame already associates with the Big East in most sports, including basketball. Why move to the Big Ten when you already have a financially rewarding TV deal for football and your basketball teams already play in the best basketball conference in the nation? The Big Ten might pursue ND once again, but there’s really no chance of Notre Dame accepting the offer.

Missouri
Missouri is supposedly one of the serious candidates for review. Why not? They’ve been fairly competitive in football and men’s basketball in the past decade (6 bowl appearances, 6 NCAA Tournament appearances). They’re an “ok” academic institution that’s been a member of the AAU since 1908. But would they want to move to the Big Ten? They’d be moving away from their most heated and historic rivalry: Kansas. They’d also leave behind their rivalry with Nebraska. Missouri also sits a little further out of the geographic area that would be considered ideal for the Big Ten. However, they’re definitely an attractive option and haven’t dismissed the idea. Missouri chancellor Brady Deaton stated, “Should there be an official inquiry or invitation, we would evaluate it based upon what would be in the best interest of MU athletically and academically.”

Pitt
Pitt is definitely a potential candidate. Joe Paterno has been quoted as recently as May of 2009 stating interest in potentially adding Pitt to the Big Ten. Pitt certainly fulfills the academic requirements. They’re a member of the AAU and rank about the middle of the Big Ten pack in the academic rankings. They’re a huge research institution, which is a major selling point. Athletically speaking, Pitt has a good tradition with the football team. They have nine National Championships and appear to be on the rise under Wannstedt. The basketball teams are very attractive with their recent success. The prospect of playing away games at Heinz Field, the Petersen Events Center, and the new Petersen Sports Complex certainly has to be appealing. Adding Pitt would instantly reignite the Pitt-PSU rivalry and almost certainly spark a natural rivarly between Pitt and Ohio State. Pitt certainly fits geographically. So what hurts Pitt’s chances from the Big Ten point of view? Well they’re not exactly a great draw for marketing. PSU’s reach already ensures that the Big Ten Network is in Pittsburgh. Adding Pitt doesn’t put the BTN in any new TV markets. It doesn’t bring a huge fan following either. Let’s face it, the Pitt fanbase doesn’t live up to the expectations of some Big Ten schools. Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State all fill football stadiums much larger than Heinz Field on a regular basis while Pitt home game attendance only averaged slightly above 53,000 this year. Still, Pitt appears to be a highly attractive choice to the Big Ten.

Syracuse
Syracuse is another attractive option for the Big Ten. They have a great basketball program history. They’ve made the men’s NCAA tournament in 16 of the last 20 seasons, winning the National Championship once. The football program is rebuilding. They’re a decent academic institution that’s already a member of the AAU. So why not? Well Syracuse would definitely bring the upstate NY TV market to the Big Ten. But Syracuse doesn’t really have any natural rivals in the Big Ten aside from Penn State. Furthermore, they are somewhat outside of the ideal geographic area. The struggling football program doesn’t exactly work well in a “here-and-now” argument. And honestly, it doesn’t appear that Syracuse would want to move to the Big Ten. Syracuse tried to leave the Big East just a few years ago when the ACC raided the Big East. That was fairly understandable as the ACC is a decent basketball conference. Syracuse would really have to consider leaving behind UConn, Pitt, WVU, Cinci, and so on for the competition in the Big Ten. Losing the appeal of the Big East tournament in Madison Square Garden would certainly hurt Syracuse with recruiting.

Rutgers
Rutgers seems to be more of a Penn State pick. I’ve heard and read reports of PSU fans and sports writers advocating Rutgers as an expansion team. Rutgers certainly would add something to the TV market with their proximity to New York City. But what else would they bring to the table? The football program has only recently made a name for itself. The basketball program is a joke. The last men’s team appearance in the NCAA Tournament was in 1991 where they lost in the first round. In fact, the only year they ever made it past the second round was 1976 (they went on to lose in the Final Four). They’re a decent school academically. But even as a member of the AAU, Rutgers ranks lower than any Big Ten school in academics. Not to mention, the school would be pretty far east for the Big Ten.

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So which team will it be? Well it’s all speculation at this point. It certainly seems like the top realistic candidates are Missouri, Pitt, and Syracuse. We’ll all have to wait though. The Big Ten statement indicated that the initial evaluation process would take anywhere from 12 to 18 months to complete. Any fact-based information could be quite a ways off yet.

The real question to ponder in the meantime is this: Should (and would) Pitt apply for membership if encouraged by the Big Ten? That’s a tough question for any Panthers fan to answer. The reality is yes, as much as it may pain you to say it. Collegiate athletics is a business. Pitt stands to make a lot of money by joining the Big Ten. The revenue sharing from the BTN alone is a huge step for Pitt. Academically speaking, Pitt would benefit greatly from aligning itself with such academically strong institutions. The Big East offers nothing in academics.

The effect on athletics is probably the last consideration for Pitt. Even then, it actually might fare well for Pitt. The football program struggles to gain much respect in the Big East. Membership in the Big Ten would certainly help the reputation of the team. A Big Ten conference schedule would most certainly boost season ticket sales for football. Imagine a home schedule that included Ohio State, Michigan, Iowa, and/or (gasp) PENN STATE. The rivalry would thrive. Pitt could still pursue a non-conference rivalry with WVU and Cincinnati, even though I don’t think the River City Rivalry is really catching on anyway. As far as basketball is concerned, Pitt would certainly be leaving behind the best basketball conference in the nation. But with teams like Michigan State and Indiana, Pitt would still have good competition in the conference. They would, however, lose the recruiting appeal of the Big East Tournament in MSG.

And as was mentioned earlier, Pitt is certainly a desirable candidate. The buzz throughout the sporting world seems to indicate that Pitt would likely be a strong candidate as well: see here, here, here, and here.

When it boils down to it, I don’t think Pitt could afford to pass up the opportunity. I’m sure the University would jump at the chance if it were presented to them. We’ll just have to wait and see what happens in the next 12-18 months.

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